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Strasbourg Round-Up

Early in October, the government achieved a key objective of the six-month UK Presidency of the EU when negotiations with Turkey for EU membership formally opened. But it was a close-run thing. Last minute attempts by Austria to tear up an agreement reached unanimously at last December’s European Summit threatened to strangle the process at birth. After a great deal of arm twisting and burning of the midnight oil, Foreign Secretary Jack Straw finally managed to broker a deal to allow the negotiations to proceed.

In light of that historic decision, this Brussels Briefing will update issue No 22 produced a year ago and re-examine some of the key issues surrounding Turkey’s application. It will conclude that the case for the country joining remains as strong as ever. But equally, it will argue that membership is neither automatic nor guaranteed and Turkey has a great deal more to do to bring itself up to EU standards.

A mainly Muslim country of 70 million people, Turkey is a bridge between Europe and Asia. It is also a poor country whose per capita income is a mere 28.5% of the EU average. Joining the EU has been a long-term goal for the country, ever since an Association Agreement was signed in 1963. That effectively promised Turkey future membership, but it was only in 1987 that a formal application was tabled.

Turkey became a member of the European Customs Union in 1995 and then it was given official EU candidate status in 1999. However, the opening of formal negotiations, which occurred in Luxembourg earlier this month, was always conditional on Turkey meeting the Copenhagen criteria – a functioning market economy with stable political institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and the protection of minorities.

EU influence in three strategically important areas – the Middle East, Central Asia and the Balkans – would be enhanced with a stable democratic Turkey on board. Turkish membership would clearly demonstrate that Islam, democracy and economic success can all mix and provide a powerful rebuttal to any notion of a “Clash of Civilisations”. It could also reinforce moderate Islam and, in the words of the former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, mark “a D-Day in the war against terror”.

Boasting an 8% annual growth rate, Turkey’s economy offers great new business opportunities. The EU already enjoys a €16 billion trade surplus with the country, while UK trade there is worth £4 billion and growing by over 30% a year. Turkey is also a key transhipment country for both oil and gas and will become ever more important to future EU energy security.

Around two thirds of UK asylum applicants and four fifths of UK heroin supplies find their way to us through Turkey. Joining the EU will require it to strengthen its borders, boost law enforcement and to increase international cooperation. Turkey could also be a major contributor to EU security and defence policy. A long-standing NATO ally, it has a large and highly effective military, which took over the ISAF lead from the UK in Afghanistan and also played various peacekeeping roles in the Balkans.

Although Turkey straddles Europe and Asia, the majority of its population is concentrated to the west of Cyprus. Moreover, Europe is defined as much by shared values, as geography and Istanbul is a cradle of European and Christian civilisations. Crucially, we should never forget that the EU – with 15 million Muslims, as well as many other religions – is even now far from an exclusively Christian club.

The country has introduced nine reform packages, including abolition of the death penalty, improved rights for Kurds, greater freedom of thought and expression and better relations between civil society and the military. What’s more, the political criteria will be kept under constant review. Crucially, the reform process in Turkey should be given added momentum, now that negotiations have begun.

Previous rounds of EU enlargement have aroused fears of mass migration, yet these have always proved groundless. Moreover, in Turkey’s case, long transitional periods on free movement of workers, including possible safeguard clauses, would likely apply. Meanwhile, the country’s attempts to ready itself for EU membership should lead to further improvements in social and economic conditions, reducing the incentive for people to leave. In addition, better internal border controls should reduce the number of illegal migrants using Turkey as a transit country. Crucially, from an economic perspective, over 90% of Turkey’s population is under 60 – a potentially valuable source of labour for a Europe with a now rapidly ageing population.

Although formal negotiations are underway, Turkey’s eventual membership is not a foregone conclusion. We are now at the beginning of a very long process that could last ten or fifteen years. For the negotiations to succeed, Turkey has to make itself fit to join. Impressive though its reform process has been to date, there is still much more work to do, especially with regard to its judicial system and its record on human rights.

For its part, the EU faces the difficult task, certainly in the current climate, of winning over public opinion in a number of existing member countries where scepticism or outright opposition to Turkish membership is at its strongest. In addition, it is difficult to envisage Turkey coming on board as long as the Cyprus Question remains unresolved.

Difficult though the road ahead will undoubtedly be, the boost to peace and stability across the European continent, which would come from Turkish membership, must surely be a prize worth striving for in these troubled times.